Post Pandemic Restaurants- The Future

COVID-19 has brought a flurry of pain and suffering to those who have contracted the virus and those around them. Unfortunately, with lockdowns in place and restaurant restrictions, we've seen countless restaurants struggle to survive, and many have already closed.

As the vaccines begin to roll out, some restrictions are being lifted. My hope is that restaurants bounce back to pre-COVID-19 levels, though my prediction is grimmer. If you are looking to help struggling restaurants, please consider donating here.

The Beginning: COVID-19 hits

At the beginning of the pandemic, as the lockdowns began to fall into place, restaurants had little information to go on regarding the length of the restrictions. We all hoped that each two-week extension of the lockdown would be the last. We didn’t know the full length of the lockdown or that when we could open, we would be plagued by near-debilitating restrictions. As a result, many restaurants failed to weather the storm.

The pandemic hasn’t affected all restaurants equally. Highly decorated and respected chefs have had to close their doors, while others, such as pizza restaurants, saw a boom in sales. It was an inevitable failure for restaurants that couldn’t adapt their model to take-out only service. Fine dining restaurants took the greatest hit, after all, fine dining food served in a takeout box lacks all the splendor that fine dining stands for.

While many restaurants did what they could to support and pay their staff, oftentimes, it came down to rent payments and general overhead that didn’t go away. At the end of the day, landlords need to pay their taxes and mortgages, and the money needs to come from somewhere. Rent payment didn’t go away, and with a lack of customers, keeping a business open was nearly impossible.

Failing Restaurants

As the pandemic comes to an end, we will undoubtedly see numerous more restaurants buckle under pressure and fail to survive. We will continue to see the effects for several years into the future. As restaurants close their doors for good, numerous locations will be up for grabs, and as new restaurants open at once, competition will be fierce. Fierce competition adds to the challenges restaurants already face. Just 40% of restaurants survive their first year, and 20% survive five years. Combining those terrifying statistics with increased competition and perhaps the inexperience of new restaurant owners, we will not only see a wave of closings during the pandemic, but one soon after the pandemic has ended.

What is the future of the restaurant industry post-pandemic? While new restaurants will pop up and succeed, it'll be survival of the fittest like never before. There are also two branches of the service industry that I think will be particularly interesting to watch. One will be the rise of ghost kitchens, a take-out-only kitchen, which you can read about here, and the rise of private chefs.

The Future 

A ghost kitchen, or cloud kitchen, is a relatively modern business approach to the food industry. A ghost kitchen is a kitchen, often in large cities, that is used only for a delivery business. It is merely a kitchen with no seating, waiters, or hosts, but just cooks and delivery drivers. The food is made and then sent out to people nearby. There are numerous unintended consequences of this type of restaurant; only time will tell if they are the future.

Having a private chef come into your home is safer, with less chance of catching a virus. You can also have your chef put together any dish you desire. If you’re cooking for large parties, the cost can be very competitive depending on what you order. It's also an experience for you and your guests to appreciate in a more intimate setting. If given the opportunity, I recommend giving a private chef experience a try. It’s an industry I foresee growing post-pandemic.

With COVID-19 still plaguing the restaurant industry, and will do so for many years in the future, it is a complex game of survival of the fittest. Now is the time for restaurants to advertise and expand their customer bases. However, expansion is risky in the post-COVID-19- Customer tendencies are unknown. Will we see a repeat of the roaring 1920s? Will the buzz last? And if it does, how long will it?

My prediction is that we will see a post-pandemic resurgence in restaurants. But I am doubtful it’ll last a full decade. I give the buzz a few years at most, then a return to typical restaurant levels. One thing is for certain: the restaurant scene will be especially exciting to those stuck in lockdown the longest.

The future of the service industry hangs in the balance. Will restaurants succeed? Will a bubble of new restaurants quickly open? Will we see a rise in ghost kitchens and the all exciting private chefs? The truth is that no one truly knows; the service industry is in the balance, and everything could swing in a new direction with the slightest gust of wind. We can only make educated predictions for the future. Nonetheless, the future is exciting, but what will it look like?

Cheers,

Chef Olson

“The Flying Chef”

Sources:

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/20/heres-the-real-reason-why-most-restaurants-fail.html